Overton Drift
100 people bounce around a room. Most start neutral, and a few loud extremists sit at each edge. Change the rules, then watch where the middle ends up, and who would win an election held right now. Every rule is a slider, so you can test whose assumptions produce which result.
Too close to call
Where people stand now
Center of gravity over time
A teaching model, not a forecast. Opinions run on 9 steps, from four steps left (L4) through neutral (0) to four steps right (R4). People only listen to others within a few steps of themselves. The original extremists (gold rings) sit at L4 and R4 and, by default, never move; people converted all the way to the edge hold that view but don't become loud. The election panel turns the room into votes: stronger views turn out more, and 101 seats are split by vote share and shaded by how hard-line each side's voters are.